Hendry’s Eclectica Fund, which posted losses in and , last year made a wager on the currency rising that helped the fund gain Eclectica Fund, a global macro hedge fund established in October .. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Year. Eclectica Asset Management LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority / Private & Confidential. 2 Hugh Hendry, April

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You will never see us pursue a homegrown idea when it is to the detriment of the prevailing trend,” he said. Surely, the Chinese stash of Treasuries is a prudent elimination of the fat tail risk that private sector deleveraging in the west ends up killing aptil golden goose of the trade surplus.

This has been the Japanese experience to date. Controlling the psyche of this generation of investor is the indelible mark of the falling dollar and the associated fear of inflation.

Hugh Hendry – Wikipedia

Past results are not indicative of future results. Yet the Alcoa CDS trades at basis points, down from its high of earlier this year. In Hendry joined the prestigious Edinburgh investment management firm, Baillie Gifford. Indeed, this peculiarity is circular in nature.

Second, the bears contend, a lower Chinese trade surplus will eliminate a very large source of Treasury buyers at a time of burgeoning supply.

Hugh Hendry Full Eclectica Letter on China’s Impending Collapse

Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. They understand that it is only the US that is willing to embrace the benefits of comparative spril that arise from international trade. Hendry has been referred to as “the most high-profile Scot” in the hedge fund sector. For a current pension scheme the greatest torment would be a repeat of last year’s final quarter when 30 year Treasuries yielded just 2. Hugh Hendry born March is the founding partner and, at various times, the chief investment officer, chief executive officer and chief portfolio manager of Eclectica Asset Management.

In other words, hard money was in tight supply and the recovery was neither swift nor decisive. The Yellow Brick Road Consider another economy needing to be rebuilt: And in this environment risk aversion stimulates the investment desire for risk free assets.

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Hugh Hendry

The Norwegians noted that construction demand had just taken another leg down as buildings started pre-crisis are now finished whilst no further pipeline exists outside of China. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. I am now going to return to the torturous and binary debate concerning inflation. At the LSE Alternative Investments Conference induring a discussion with Steven Drobny, Hendry joked that his clients have banned him from further media appearances.

But instead, in exercising good ol’ Texan tradition, they have opted, like the Hunt brothers did, to double up. Heady stuff, but not without precedent: However, errors may occasionally occur. If a poet knows more about a horse than he does about heaven, he might better stick to the horse Now with China having been on such an expansionary tear, it may not surprise you to hear that finished Chinese steel prices today trade below their production cost.

My intellectual foes, on the other hand, are adamant that long duration government bonds are a short. The private sector’s debt may be sustained by maintaining low nominal interest rates. The subsequent reconstruction of modern China, though, intervened. The present is so seductive. As a consequence the Chinese surplus is set to fall further and, with fewer dollars needing to be recycled to maintain the currency peg, their demand for Treasuries will continue to shrink.

It is an American that can finance its own spending domestically. Have you ever asked yourself why car prices in America are so low compared with those in Europe?

Consider another economy needing to be rebuilt: The QE succeeded because, amongst eflectica features, it raised the velocity of monetary circulation. But, with the economy operating at its zero-hour, we believe this incremental leverage will actually have a negative impact. Let us review the Wpril Z1 numbers. Eclectica Asset Management was founded in [9] when Hendry and his colleague Simon Batten purchased the management contract of the Eclectica Fund from Odey to establish themselves as a stand-alone fund manager.

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It is a theme that I will constantly revisit in my arguments below. The ability of fractional reserve banking to leverage this liquidity many times over provided the monetary mo-jo to instigate fnd higher commodity prices.

Despite their bubble never coming close to matching China’s prominence in industrial commodities, the loss of Japanese aptil growth in the s was nevertheless a major factor in the waterfall crash in commodities. Consider the aluminium market. I have quoted Don Coxe’s definition of aprjl bull market before and I intend to do so again. This zero-hour for America has elcectica arrived sooner than many had anticipated.

In other words, quantitative easing, masquerading as a cheap but fixed currency regime, has succeeded where Japan’s orthodox version has failed. I even hear that some Wall Street legends are so convinced of the argument made by the likes of Niall Ferguson that they personally own Treasury put options and are actively counselling others to do the same.

Imagine that we have not even considered their pension liabilities. Let me say it again; we have already had the devaluation.

And remember that investments in fixed capital formation think new aluminium plants et al. Retrieved 22012 ” https: Even so, the aluminium situation mimics that of steel, but with an even mightier inventory overhang. But first, I am indebted to Scott Sumner, professor of economics at the University of Bentley, and his essay on the economic lessons that can be drawn from timelessness in art see http: And yet it is as though the other surplus countries are behaving like Bernie’s former investors who, believing in the stated NAV and its promise of more of the same i.

Even Ryanair are talking about suspending their aggressive growth plans and may delay the purchase of more planes. Eclecfica may or may not have investments in any funds, programs or companies cited above.

To make matters even worse, the Chinese have stopped importing and are eager to ramp up domestic aluminium production.